1985-2017年环渤海地区围填海演化及驱动力分析

Sea Reclamation and Driving Forces in Bohai Rim from 1985 to 2017

[目的]分析1985-2017年环渤海地区的围填海演化特征,并探讨其驱动力,为加强围填海综合管治,促进区域可持续发展等提供参考依据。[方法]基于遥感影像,利用ENVI,ArcGIS处理并提取各时期围填海岸线和围填利用数据,结合分形维数、围垦强度系数、开发强度指数和转移矩阵分析围填海演化特征;采用灰色关联度法讨论围填海活动的驱动机制。[结果]①1985-2017年,环渤海围填海总面积4.25×10^5 hm^2,年均开发强度指数为2.6%;围填海岸线增长1 734 km,增长幅度为62%。从时间上看,年均增长速率和围垦强度变化趋势具有相似性,均表现出降低-升高-降低的趋势;从空间上看,表现为南部开发强度远高于北部,西部高于东部的特征。②研究期内有两次围填高峰,第一个围填高峰以围海养殖利用为主,占用了大量的植被用地和未利用地;第二个围填高峰以填海建设为主,占用了大量的自然海域。③社会经济发展是围填海活动的主要驱动力,其中水产品产量、区域人口、渔业产值是主要驱动因子。此外,国家政策和自然因素对围填海活动的发展有重要意义。[结论]合理规划养殖水域,提高单位面积产能是恢复沿海生态环境的有效途径;均衡区域开发强度和调控区域人口增速对实现区域可持续发展有重要意义。

[Objective]The evolution and driving forces of the sea reclamation in the Bohai Rim from 1985 to 2017 were analyzed,in order to provide support for the comprehensive management of the sea reclamation and promote the sustainable development of the region.[Methods]Using the remote sensing data,ENVI and ArcGIS were used to process and extract the sea reclamation coastline and land use types in each period,and the characteristics of reclamation evolution were analyzed by fractal dimension,coastal reclamation index,development intensity index and transfer matrix.The driving mechanism of reclamation activity was discussed by grey correlation degree method.[Results]①From 1985 to 2017,the total area of reclamation around Bohai Sea increased by 4.25×10^5 hm^ 2,with an average annual development intensity index of 2.6%.The reclamation coastline increased by 1734 km,with an increase rate of 62%.In terms of time,the average annual development intesity index and coastal reclamation index changed in a similar way,showing a trend of decreasing,increasing and decreasing.In terms of space,the development intensity in the south was much higher than that in the north and the west was much higher than that in the East.②There are two reclamation peaks in the study period,the first one was mainly for aquaculture,occupying a large number of vegetation land and unused land,and the second one was mainly for construction,taking up lots of natural sea areas.③The main driving forces of sea reclamation activities were social and economic development,among which aquatic product production,regional population and fishery industry development were the main driving forces.In addition,national policies and natural factors were of great significance to the sea reclamation activities.[Conclusion]The effective ways to restore the coastal ecological environment are to reasonably plan the aquaculture water area and increase the production capacity of unit area.Balancing the intensity of regional development and regulating the growth of regional population are of great significance to the realization of regional sustainable development.