中俄美关系与国际秩序

China-Russia-US Relations and International Order

中俄美关系反映国际秩序建设的主要内容和基本矛盾,代表新国际秩序建设的不同理念和主张,并在很大程度上决定未来国际秩序走向。对于自由主义国际秩序的衰落,中俄美各有其作用。与一般的看法相反,中国不是自由主义国际秩序衰落的直接原因。俄罗斯对现行国际秩序的作用有两重性:在维护的同时亦有冲击。自由主义国际秩序衰落的根源在自身,一方面是西方世界整体性相对衰落,另一方面是西方将自由主义思想推向极端以致超出合理性边界,在国际政治的实践中遭受重大失败,国际社会对其“普世价值”认同降低。对于现行国际秩序,中俄美存在不同认识。美国把中俄界定为国际秩序的“修正主义国家”,而中俄认为自己是现行国际秩序的维护者,原因是三国所理解的国际秩序不同。在基本理念和立场趋同的情况下,中俄在国际秩序建设的一些具体理论和实践问题上有不同的风格和特点。未来国际秩序的形成将是一个长期和曲折的过程,任何一个国家或国家联合都不可能单独构建起普遍的国际秩序。在中俄美形成的竞争性结构下,不可能出现一元化的国际秩序,未来国际秩序有三种可能的形态:碎片化、多元型和“新东西方”体系。“新东西方”体系有可能演变为以中美对立为主要框架。2020年新冠疫情大流行对国际秩序和中俄美关系产生巨大的冲击,但这更可能是加速原有过程,而不是改变方向。

The China-Russia-US relations reflect the main content and contradictions of international order,represent different ideas and propositions about the transformation of international order,and largely determine the future direction of international order.With respect to the decline of the liberal order,China,Russia,and the US have played their own roles.China is not the direct reason for the decline of the liberal international order.Russia’s role in the current international order is twofold.The root of the decline of the liberal international order lies in itself.On the one hand,the West as a whole is declining.On the other hand,the West has pushed liberalism to the extreme.Regarding the current international order,China,Russia and the US have different views.The US defines China and Russia as revisionist powers while China and Russia consider themselves to be the maintainers of the current international order.The formation of the new international order will be a long and tortuous process.It is impossible for any country or country bloc to build a universal international order alone.Under the competitive structure formed by China,Russia,and the US,there is no room for a unitary international order.Probably,there will be three forms of international order in the future including the fragmented,plural,and the“new confrontation between the East and the West”forms.The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 affects on the international order and China-Russia-US relations a lot.But its influence is more likely to accelerate the original process rather than change the direction.