波俄能源的非对称相互依赖与波俄关系——以“北溪-2”能源项目为例

Asymmetric Interdependence of Energy between Poland and Russia and Russia-Poland Relations:Taking the Nord Stream Ⅱ Project as an Example

波俄关系自冷战结束以来,经历了“重启—紧张—缓和—再紧张”等多次跌宕起伏,其中夹杂在两国之间的历史纠葛、地缘政治攻守以及背后的大国博弈等因素已经成为影响波俄关系的惯常性变量。然而,这些并不能有效解释牵动当前波俄关系敏感神经的波动性变量是什么。在乌克兰危机之后,随着俄罗斯“北溪-2”项目的启动,波兰长久以来对俄罗斯能源的不对称依赖不断扩大,成为俄罗斯对波兰施加政治影响的武器。本文从能源视角出发,通过敏感性与脆弱性两个核心变量构建波俄能源不对称性相互依赖关系的分析框架,试图解释俄罗斯在启动“北溪-2”项目之后,依赖较大国波兰努力降低或摆脱对俄能源脆弱性依赖可能的政策回应及其对双边关系可能产生的经济与政治影响。

Since the end of the Cold War,Russia-Poland relations have experienced many upsand downs,among which the historical entanglement,geopolitical issues,and the game between the big powers have become the constant factors influencing the Russia-Poland relations.Nevertheless,these factors are not fluctuating variables that touch the sensitive nerves of the current Russia-Poland relations.After the Ukrainian crisis,with the launch of the“Nord Stream Ⅱ”project,Poland’s long-standing and asymmetrical dependence on Russian energy has continued to expand and this becomes a weapon of Russia to exert political influence on Poland.From the perspective of energy,this paper takes the sensitivity and vulnerability as two core variables and builds an analysis framework for the asymmetric interdependence of energy between Poland and Russia.It aims to explain Poland’s endeavor to reduce its vulnerability and its reliance on Russia after the launch of Nord Stream Ⅱ,and the potential political and economic impact on the bilateral relations.