弱市场模式的曲折成长:俄罗斯人工智能产业发展探微

Tortuous Growth of the Weak Market Model:Development of Russia’s Artificial Intelligence Industry

俄罗斯是全球人工智能发展史的重要分支。苏联模式既留下宝贵科技遗产,也制约今天俄罗斯人工智能快速发展。当代俄罗斯人工智能产业已形成独特的“弱市场模式”,主要表现为政府、军事与市场三大板块平行推进,政府版块占据强势主导地位,军事版块形成独立发展闭环,市场版块受多重挤压而艰难成长。由于产业结构重心完全倒向政府一侧,政府力量取代市场体制成为沟通产业体系内各要素的桥梁。由于市场调节能力欠缺,俄罗斯人工智能产业难以克服人才流失、资本不足与数据匮乏等弱点。虽发展模式不均衡特征突出,但依托基础研发、人才培养和军事工业等个别领域的比较优势,俄罗斯在全球人工智能产业的实际地位应高于目前主流评估体系中的位置。俄罗斯在未来10年将不会对现有发展模式进行根本变革,而是通过政策层面的适当调整推动技术与产业发展,这将限制其发展空间与速度。中俄两国在人工智能民用科技、国家安全、全球治理等领域仍有较大合作潜力。

Russia plays a crucial role in the developmental history of global artificial intelligence(AI).The Soviet model left a valuable scientific and technological heritage,but also restricted the rapid development of AI in Russia today.The contemporary AI industry in Russia has formed a unique“weak market model”which is mainly manifested in the parallel advancement of government,military and market.The government sector occupies a dominant position.The military sector has formed an closed loop for independent development.While the market sector is difficult to grow due to multiple squeezes.Since the gravity of its industrial structure has completely shifted to the government side,the government has replaced the market system as a bridge to link the various elements in the AI industrial system.Due to the weak market regulation capabilities,its AI industry is difficult to overcome the problems of brain drain,insufficient capital and lack of data.Although the development model is uneven,relying on the comparative advantages in basic research and development,personnel training and military industry,Russia’s actual position in the global AI industry should be higher than that in the mainstream evaluation system.Russia will not make fundamental changes to the existing AI development model in the next 10 years,but will promote the development of technology and industry through appropriate adjustments at the policy level.Such a choice will limit its development space and speed.For China and Russia,they still have great potential for cooperation in the fields of AI,civil technology,national security,and global governance.