基于模型思维的预警情报分析模式研究

Study on Warning Intelligence Analytic Pattern based on Model Thinking

[目的/意义]阐明预警分析面临的挑战,分析传统预警分析模式的路径与特点,探讨如何利用模型思维重新定义并助力预警分析,形成有序、规范的分析思考路径,构建预警系统分析模式。[方法/过程]从预警分析的本质着手,研究模型思维对预警分析的作用和意义,总结如何利用模型思维重塑一个系统、明晰的预警分析流程。[结果/结论]预警分析不同于动态分析,需要基于过去、现在的深度认识,才能更好预测未来,因此构建系统分析模式有助于分析工作实现综合性、系统性和规范性,以应对不确定性的挑战。

[Purpose/Significance]The paper tries to illuminate the challenge facing warning analysis.Based on a study on the analytic path and characters of traditional pattern in warning analysis,it emphasizes a reflection on how to redefine warning analysis by model thinking,and how to think and analyze in an orderly and normative way.[Method/Process]Staring from the very nature of warning analysis,the focus of the research is given to the role of model thinking in warning analysis and its significance.It deliberates on the way of rebuilding a systematic and lucid process for warning analysis by model thinking.[Result/Conclusion]The paper points out that warning intelligence analysis differ from current intelligence analysis.The former needs to give a better prediction based on a good understanding of the past and the current situation.Therefore,a systematic pattern is conducive to achieving comprehensive,systematic and normative analysis in order to cope with the challenge of uncertainty.