贸易争端背景下世界猪肉生产、贸易格局变动分析

Analysis of Changes in World Pork Production and Trade Pattern under the Background of Trade Disputes

2019年5月美国将中国2 000亿美元输美商品的关税从10%上调至25%,暂停数月的中美贸易摩擦再度重启,世界猪肉生产、贸易格局迎来新的变化。总结了世界猪肉生产、贸易的地区格局,分析了主要进出口国的猪肉生产、贸易特征及显示性比较优势,探讨了中美贸易争端对世界猪肉生产、贸易格局的影响。主要结果和结论为:世界猪肉市场的相对垄断格局及高波动性在较长时期不会改变;美国与加拿大、巴西等其他主产国的猪肉生产、出口将呈现此消彼长的态势;相对分散的世界猪肉进口格局存在较多变数;中国大量进口猪肉的基本态势短期内不会改变。

In May 2019,the United States raised tariffs on US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods exported to the United States from 10%to 25%.After a pause of several months,the Sino-US trade friction restarted again,and the world′s pork production and trade pattern also faced new changes.This paper summarizes the regional pattern of pork production and trade in the world,analyzes the characteristics of pork production and trade and the revealing comparative advantage of major importing and exporting countries,and discusses the impacts of Sino-US trade friction on world pork production and trade pattern.The main results and conclusions are as follows:the relatively monopolistic pattern and high volatility of the world pork market will not change for a long period of time;pork production and export from other major producing countries such as the United State,Canada,Brazil will show a wax and wane trend;there are many variables in the relatively scattered world pork import pattern;the basic situation of China′s massive pork import will not change in the short term.