1990—2010年中国女性早婚和生育的地区不平等性

Subnational inequalities of early marriage and fertility among Chinese females from 1990 to 2010

目的:分析1990—2010年中国15~19岁女性青少年结婚和生育的地区不平等性。方法:利用1990—2010年三次全国人口普查汇总数据,计算中国15~19岁女性青少年的已婚率和生育率。将各省份人均国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)作为社会经济发展水平指标,计算女性青少年已婚率和生育率的不平等绝对指数(slope index of inequality,SII)和集中指数(concentration index,CI),并建立线性回归模型衡量已婚率和生育率与人均GDP的关联。结果:1990—2000年,全国15~19岁女性的已婚率从4.7%下降至1.2%,但在2010年反弹至2.1%。生育率从1990年的22.0/1000人下降至2000年的6.0/1000人,2010年进一步下降为5.9/1000人。1990年,15~19岁女性青少年已婚率和生育率地区层面的社会经济不平等性不具有统计学意义(SII和CI均P>0.05)。SII分析显示,2000和2010年,人均GDP最低人群的已婚率比最高人群分别高2.4%(95%CI:0.4~4.4)和2.3%(95%CI:0.3~4.2)。与此同时,2000年和2010年人均GDP最低人群的生育率比最高人群分别高12.9/1000人(95%CI:5.4~20.5)和9.3/1000人(95%CI:4.6~14.0)。已婚的CI值在2000年和2010年分别为-0.32(P=0.02)和-0.17(P=0.03),生育的CI值在2000年和2010年分别为-0.37(P<0.01)和-0.26(P<0.01)。2000年,人均GDP上升100%,已婚率平均下降1.4%(95%CI:0.1~2.7),生育率平均下降7.9/1000人(95%CI:2.9~12.8)。2010年,人均GDP上升100%,已婚率平均下降1.5%(95%CI:0.1~2.9),生育率平均下降6.7/1000人(95%CI:3.2~10.1)。结论:2000年和2010年存在女性青少年早婚早育地区层面的社会经济不平等性,生活在经济发展水平较低的女性青少年更容易早婚早育;减少收入不公平、增加对贫困地区的教育投资可能是改善早婚早育地区不平等的有效措施。

Objective:To analyze the inequality of early marriage and adolescent fertility with respect to local economic development among Chinese females aged 15-19 years from 1990 to 2010.Methods:Aggregated data were extracted from the Chinese National Census from 1990 to 2010.We calculated the ever-married rate and fertility rate of female adolescents aged 15-19 years.Using gross domestic product(GDP)per capita as an indicator for socio-economic status of a province,we calculated the slope index of inequality(SII)and the concentration index(CI)to analyze the subnational inequalities of early marriage and adolescent fertility.Weighted linear regression models were also established to assess the associations between GDP per capita and the ever-married rate/fertility rate.Results:The ever-married rate for Chinese female adolescents aged 15-19 years decreased from 4.7%in 1990 to 1.2%in 2000,and rebounded to 2.1%in 2010.From 1990 to 2000,the fertility rate decreased from 22.0 per 1000 to 6.0 per 1000,and further decreased to 5.9 per 1000 in 2010.In 1990,the socio-economic inequalities of the ever-married rate and fertility rate for female adolescents aged 15-19 years were not statistically significant(P for SII or CI>0.05).The values of SII revealed that,in 2000 and 2010,female adolescents with the lowest GDP per capita had an ever-married rate 2.4%(95%CI:0.4-4.4)and 2.3%(95%CI:0.3-4.2)higher than those with the highest GDP per capita,respectively.In the meantime,in 2000 and 2010,female adolescents with the lowest GDP per capita had a fertility rate 12.9 per 1000(95%CI:5.4-20.5)and 9.3 per 1000(95%CI:4.6-14.0)higher than those with the highest,respectively.In 2000 and 2010,the CIs for marriage were-0.32(P=0.02)and-0.17(P=0.03),respectively,and the CIs for childbirth were-0.37(P<0.01)and-0.26(P<0.01),respectively.In 2000,the ever-married rate and the fertility rate were estimated to increase by 1.4%(95%CI:0.1-2.7)and 7.9 per 1000(95%CI:2.9-12.8)with 100%increase in GDP per capita,respectively;in 2010,the numbers were 1.5%(95%CI:0.1-2.9)and 6.7 per 1000(95%CI:3.2-10.1),respectively.Conclusion:Subnational socio-economic inequality of early marriage and adolescent fertility existed in 2000 and 2010.Female adolescents residing in less-developed areas were more likely to engage in early marriage and childbirth.Reducing income inequality and increasing education investment for poverty-stricken areas seem to be effective measures to reduce this inequality.