产业结构变化与环境污染排放的动态关系研究--以长江经济带为例

Study on the Dynamic Relationship of Industrial Structure Change and Environmental Pollution Discharge--Taking the Changjiang River Economic Belt as an Example

以1992-2017年长江经济带产业结构和环境污染数据为样本,运用VAR模型测算了生态文明战略驱动下产业结构特征变化对环境污染排放的冲击影响。结果表明:①长江经济带第一产业的增长对二氧化硫排放总量和烟(粉)尘排放总量起到负向冲击作用;②第二产业的增长对污水排放总量、二氧化硫排放总量和烟(粉)尘排放总量起到正向冲击作用;③第三产业的增长对烟(粉)尘排放总量具有负向冲击作用;④环境污染的方差分解中,污水排放总量和二氧化硫排放总量的解释度均为20%,烟(粉)尘排放总量的解释度为40%。

Taking the industrial structure and environmental pollution data of the Changjiang River Economic Belt from 1992 to 2017 as samples,the VAR model was used to estimate the impact of changes in industrial structure characteristics on environmental pollution emissions driven by the strategy of ecological civilization.The results showed that:①The growth of the primary industry in the Changjiang River Economic Belt had a negative impact on the total sulfur dioxide emissions and the total smoke(dust) dust emissions;②The growth of the secondary industry had a positive impact on the total sewage emissions,total sulfur dioxide emissions and the total smoke(dust) dust emissions;③The growth of the tertiary industry had a negative impact on the total smoke(dust) dust emissions;④In the decomposition of variance of environmental pollution,the explanation degree of the total sewage discharge and the total sulfur dioxide discharge was 20%,and the explanation degree of the total smoke(dust) dust discharge was 40%.