我国合意的跨境资本流量区间测算--基于系统动力学方法

China’s Desirable Cross-border Capital Flow Measurement--Based on System Dynamics Method

大量资本流入流出会对一国经济平稳运行带来冲击,并可能引发货币危机,但几乎没有学者去界定和测算"大量资本"的具体数量。如果能找到一个合意的跨境资本流动区间,即在这个区间内资本流动对经济增长有显著促进作用,在区间之外则不能有效促进经济增长,就可以有效预防跨境资本流动冲击。通过构建我国跨境资本流动的系统动力学仿真模型,测算未来十年我国跨境资本流动的合意区间。结果显示,2020年我国合意的资本净流入区间是[0.11,3.08]万亿元人民币;2023年我国合意的资本净流入区间是[-3.22,3.77]万亿元人民币;2027年我国合意的资本净流入区间是[-8.4 9,5.29]万亿元人民币。我国跨境资本流量处于这一合意区间时,资本流动不会对经济稳定形成冲击,而当跨境资本流量超出这个区间就意味着可能会对经济平稳运行产生显著的负面冲击,需要采取措施遏制不利影响。

A large amount of capital inflows and outflows will impact the stable operation of a country’s economy and may trigger a currency crisis,but few scholars have defined and measured the specific amount of "large amounts of capital".If a satisfactory cross-border capital flow range can be found,that is,capital flow can significantly promote economic growth within this range, and economic growth cannot be effectively entered outside the range, and cross-border capital flow shocks can be effectively prevented.By constructing a system dynamics simulation model of China’s cross-border capital flows, the desired range of China ’s cross-border capital flows in the next ten years is calculated.The results show that in 2020 China’s net capital inflow range is [0.11,3.08] trillion yuan;in 2023 China’s net capital inflow range is[-3.22,3.77] trillion yuan;in 2027 the net inflow range of China’s net capital is [-8.49, 5.29] trillion yuan.When China’s cross-border capital flows are within this desirable range, capital flows will not have an impact on economic stability,and when cross-border capital flows exceed this range, it means that there may be a significant negative impact on the smooth operation of the economy, and measures are needed to contain Negative Effects.