中美贸易摩擦背景下中日韩自贸区的潜力与经济效应分析

Analysis on Potential and Economic Effect of China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Zone in the Context of Sino-US Trade Friction

在当前全球贸易保护主义的逆流中,自由贸易体制受到严重冲击,世界经济中各类不确定因素增加,区域经济合作成为重要应对手段。根据中日韩双边经贸合作现状,利用贸易结合度指数和贸易互补性指数对中日韩之间商品的竞争性与互补性进行测算,继而基于GTAP模型模拟在中日韩自贸区建成后三国间不同进口关税对彼此间宏观经济、贸易及不同产业的影响,结果表明,中日韩自贸区的建立有助于推动三国深化贸易合作,扩大进出口规模,改善国民福利。对此,三国应积极推进中日韩自贸区建设,大力培育东北亚区域市场提供者,以提高整个区域抵御外部风险的能力。

The free trade system in global trade protectionism has been severely impacted,various uncertainties in the world economy have increased,and regional economic cooperation has become an important means of response.According to current situation of economic and trade cooperation of China,Japan and South Korea,this paper calculates the competitiveness and complementarity of commodities by using trade combination degree and trade complementarity index,and then simulates the impact of different import tariffs on their macroeconomy,trade and different industries after the establishment of China-Japan-South Korea free trade zone based on GTAP model.The results show that the establishment of China-Japan-South Korea free trade zone will help to deepen trade cooperation among three countries,expand the scale of imports and exports,and improve national welfare.To this end,three countries should actively promote the construction of China-Japan-South Korea free trade zone,and cultivate regional market providers vigorously in Northeast Asia,so as to enhance the ability of the whole region to resist external risks.