经济政策不确定性对中国出口三元边际的影响--来自高技术产品的证据

The Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Three Margins of China’s Exports:Evidence From High-tech Products

利用Baker等(2016)制定的经济政策不确定性指数,研究2002~2017年中国的经济政策不确定性对高技术产品出口扩展边际、数量边际和价格边际的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性对中国高技术产品出口贸易的抑制效应表现为扩展边际和数量边际的下降,即出口种类和数量的减少,对出口价格边际起促进作用。进一步研究发现,相较中等收入国家,中国对高收入水平的国家(地区)出口高技术产品受中国经济政策不确定性的影响更加明显和强烈;受金融危机冲击,国内经济政策不确定性对出口扩展边际和价格边际的影响也变得更加剧烈。基于此,文章从稳定经济政策、加强技术创新和深化经贸合作方面提出促进高技术产品出口发展的政策建议。

Based on the economic policy uncertainty index developed by Baker et al.( 2016), this paper studies the impact of China’s economic policy uncertainty on export extensive margin, quantity margin and price margin of high-tech products from 2002 to2017. The research shows that the inhibitory effect of economic policy uncertainty on export trade of China’s high-tech products is manifested by the decrease of extensive margin and quantity margin, that is, the decrease of export varieties and quantities, which promotes export price margin. Further research reveals that compared with the middle-income countries, China’s export of high-tech products to the high-income countries( regions) is more significantly and severely affected by China’s economic policy uncertainty. The influence of domestic economic policy uncertainty on export extensive margin and price margin also becomes more intense due to the impact of the financial crisis. On this basis, the paper puts forward policy suggestions to promote the export development of high-tech products from the aspects of stabilizing economic policies, strengthening technological innovation and deepening economic and trade cooperation.