人民币汇率变动对企业员工实际工资的影响--基于中国省际和区域两个层面的实证研究

Research on the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Per Capita Wage:Empirical Study Based on Provincial and Regional Levels

将中国劳动力市场对外融合度纳入研究框架,文章分析了汇率变动影响工资的传导机制,构建了各省实际有效汇率指标,研究了人民币实际有效汇率变动对企业员工人均实际工资的影响。研究发现:从国家层面来看,人民币升值(贬值)对国有、集体以及非公有制等三类企业员工的人均实际工资均存在一定的提升(抑制)效应,其中,汇率变动对非公有制企业人均实际工资的影响最大;从区域层面来看,人民币汇率变动对国有以及集体企业人均实际工资的影响,呈现东、中、西三个区域依次下降的趋势,但对东部和中部非公有制企业的人均实际工资没有显著影响,而西部地区非公有制企业受到的影响却十分显著;分省研究表明,人民币升值(贬值)对山东、广东等沿海省份人均实际工资具有很大的增长(抑制)效应,对吉林、新疆等边疆省份具有一定的增长(抑制)效应,但对广西、重庆等西部省份(直辖市)具有较强的抑制(增长)效应。政策当局需要考虑汇率变动对人均实际工资影响的省际异质性,特别需要关注人民币汇率变动很可能扩大了某些省份之间的工资差距;中、西部省份在承接东部产业转移的同时,更需要进行产业的升级换代。

By including the external integration of China’s labor market in the research framework, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on per capita wage, constructs the real effective exchange rate index of each province, and studies the impact of the real effective exchange rate fluctuations in RMB on per capita real wage of the enterprises ’ employees. The research shows that: from the national level, the appreciation( depreciation) of RMB has a certain promotion( inhibition)effect on per capita real wage of the state-owned, collective and non-public enterprises,among which the fluctuations in exchange rate exert the greatest impact on per capita real wage of non-public enterprises;from the regional level, the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on per capita real wage of the state-owned and collective enterprises shows a downward trend in the eastern, central and western regions. However, it has no significant impact on per capita real wage of the eastern and central non-public enterprises, while the impact on the western non-public enterprises is very obvious;the provincial research shows that the appreciation( depreciation) of RMB exerts a great growth( inhibition) effect on per capita real wage of the coastal provinces like Shandong and Guangdong, and has a certain growth( inhibition) effect on the frontier provinces such as Jilin and Xinjiang. However, it exerts a strong inhibition( growth) influence on per capita real wage of some western provinces( municipalities directly under the Central Government) like Guangxi and Chongqing. The policy authorities should take the provincial heterogeneity of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on per capita real wage into account, and pay special attention to the fact that RMB exchange rate fluctuations are likely to expand the wage gap among some provinces.When undertaking the industrial transfer from the eastern areas, the central and western provinces are more necessary than ever to upgrade the industries.