基于卫星遥感技术的区域经济发展模型构建

Construction of regional economic development model based on satellite remote sensing technology

针对区域经济发展调查中传统方法费时费力、数据缺乏客观性的问题,从区域经济发展引起地球表面形态变化的角度出发,借助卫星遥感技术优势,构建模型,以便更加客观、真实地了解区域经济发展形势。首先,基于卫星遥感数据,获取不同时相地球表面形态变化和土地利用信息;其次,分析各土地利用类型与各区域经济指标之间的相关性,优选敏感因子;然后,结合社会调查数据,构建区域经济发展模型;最后,进行精度评价,以验证模型的有效性和适用性。以舟山群岛为例的研究结果表明,建设用地面积是与各经济指标相关性最强的敏感因子,与国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)、第一产业总值(primary industry product,PIP)、第二产业总值(secondary industry product,SIP)和第三产业总值(tertiary industry product,TIP)的相关系数分别为0.9591,0.9390,0.9546和0.9573;遥感数据与社会调查数据相结合的区域经济发展模型简单清晰,精度较高,平均决定系数R^2为0.9795。本研究为区域经济发展预测和经济数据纠偏提供了一种新思路,为观测区域经济活动及其影响提供了一种新途径,对于了解区域经济发展,调整和修正统计数据具有实用意义。

In order to break through the time-consuming and laborious limitations of traditional regional economic development surveys,the authors built some regional economic development models by virtue of the advantages of remote sensing technology.First,based on multi-source and multi-temporal satellite remote sensing data,the authors obtained surface morphological changes and land use information,analyzed the correlation between land use types and regional economic indicators,optimized sensitive factors,then combined the social survey data to build a regional economic development model and finally performed an accuracy evaluation to verify the validity and applicability of the model.Zhoushan Islands were selected as the research area to carry out verification experiments.The experimental results show that the construction land area is the most sensitive factor related to various economic indicators,and the correlation coefficients with GDP,PIP,SIP and TIP are respectively 0.9591,0.9390,0.9546 and 0.9573.The average determination coefficient R^2 of the regional economic development model built with the survey data is 0.9795.The results obtained by the authors provide a new way of thinking for regional economic development prediction and economic data correction and also provide a possibility for humans to observe economic activities and their impact.The model built in this study is simple and clear yet with high precision,and thus is of great significance for understanding regional economic development as well as adjusting and correcting statistical data.