基于生态安全的空间冲突测度与影响因素研究--以昆明市为例

Spatial conflict measurement and influencing factors based on ecological security:A case study of Kunming City

为研究未来空间科学规划,降低区域生态风险,本研究基于生态安全,对昆明市空间冲突水平进行测度,并探究其影响因素。利用ArcGIS空间分析方法、风险源-风险受体-风险效应的风险评价模型及地理探测器模型的基础上,探测昆明市1995-2015年国土空间冲突强度变化,并对研究区空间冲突强度及其主导驱动因素和交互作用进行研究。结果表明:1)总体上,昆明市在1995、2005、2015年空间冲突强度均值呈现前低后高的特点,分别为0.188、0.190、0.206,处于稳定可控范围,空间生态风险性低,但严重失控区的空间面积逐年增加,可控区面积逐年减少;2)不同的空间景观类型,空间冲突强度差异大。其中,林地、草地、耕地的空间冲突强度低,而水域、建设用地、未利用地的空间冲突强度相对较高;3)地理探测因子探测器表明了人口、GDP是研究区形成空间冲突的主要驱动因素,交互探测器进一步解释了人口与GDP、人口与高程、人口与距道路距离的组合,协同作用大,共同作用区域空间冲突。

To study future spatial scientific planning and reduce regional ecological risks,this study measures the level of spatial conflicts in Kunming based on ecological security and explores its influencing factors.Based on the spatial analysis method of ArcGIS,risk source-risk receptor-risk effect risk assessment model and geographic detector model,the changes in the intensity of land and space conflicts in Kunming from 1995 to 2015 were detected,and its dominant drivers and interactions were researched.The results showed that:1)In general,the average spatial conflict intensity of Kunming City in 1995,2005 and 2015 was characterized by low before and high after,which were respectively 0.188,0.190 and 0.206,and in a stable and controllable range.The level of conflict ecological security was high,but the spatial area of severely out of control areas kept increasing year by year,and the area of controllable areas was decreasing year by year;2)Different spatial landscape types had large differences in the intensity of spatial conflicts.Among them,the spatial conflict intensity of forest land,grassland and cultivated land was low,while the spatial conflict intensity of water area,construction land and unused land was relatively high;3)The results for geographical detection factor detector indicated that population and GDP were the main spatial conflicts in the study area.The interactive detector further explained the combinations of population and GDP,population and elevation,population and the distance from the road,which showed great synergy and regional spatial conflict.