近期我国羊肉价格上涨的经济效应

Economic effect of recent mutton price increases in China

为探究近期我国羊肉价格大幅上涨产生的经济效应,并进一步完善稳定羊肉市场供需的政策,以宏观统计数据为基础,采用Nerlove模型等方法研究了近期羊肉价格上涨分别对羊肉供给、居民羊肉消费以及中国居民消费价格指数(CPI)的影响。研究发现:羊肉价格上涨对羊肉供给有显著的正向影响,但是短期内并不能促使羊肉供给大幅增加;对城乡居民羊肉消费均具有消极影响,其中对西部边疆少数民族聚居地区居民和低收入群体影响更大;羊肉价格上涨在一定程度上能够带动CPI上涨,但并不会对城乡居民实际生活费用支出造成巨大影响。基于以上结论,提出应加大对羊肉生产的政策扶持力度,为收入较低群体和边疆少数民族聚居地区居民提供羊肉消费补贴以及加强羊肉价格的监测与预警工作等政策建议。

To study the economic effect of recent mutton price increases in China and further improve the policy of stabilizing the supply and demand of the mutton market,based on macro statistics,this study adopts Nerlove model and other methods to analyze the effect of recent mutton price increases in mutton supply,consumption and Consumer Price Index(CPI).The economic effect concerning the recent sharp increase in mutton price in China is explored,.The results show that mutton price increase has a significant positive impact on mutton supply,but it does not contribute to a substantial increase in mutton supply in the short term.In addition,a negative impact is found on mutton consumption of both urban and rural residents.The residents and low-income groups living in the western minority areas are more affected.To a certain extent,the increase in mutton price can drive the CPI up whereas no huge impact of it can be noticed on the actual living expenses of urban and rural residents.All evidences suggest that it is necessary to increase the policy support for mutton production,to provide mutton consumption subsidies for low-income groups and ethnic minorities in frontier areas and to strengthen the monitoring and alert mechanism of mutton prices.