全球经济政策不确定性与中国粮食价格--基于非对称性视角的分析

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and China’s Grain Price Volatility--Based onthe Perspective of Asymmetry Analysis

本文采用TVAR模型从非对称性视角实证分析了全球经济政策不确定性对中国粮食价格的影响。研究发现:(1)在不确定性程度较低时,全球经济政策不确定性对中国粮食价格主要产生正向效应,而在不确定性程度较高时,全球经济政策不确定性对中国粮食价格会产生显著的负向效应,即存在影响方向上的非一致性;(2)对于玉米、小麦和大豆价格,不确定性程度较高时的影响程度大于不确定性程度较低时的影响程度,而对于大米价格,不确定性程度较高时的影响程度小于不确定性程度较低时的影响程度,即存在影响程度上的非对称性;(3)在不确定性程度较高时,国际石油价格对中国粮食价格的影响较大,国际粮食价格对中国粮食价格的影响反而更小。本文对当前如何降低全球市场不确定性对中国粮食价格冲击具有重要的政策含义。

This paper uses the TVAR model to empirically examine the asymmetric impact of global economic policy uncertainty on China’s grain price from the perspective of asymmetry. The results are as follows:(1) In low-uncertainty regime, global economic policy uncertainty mainly has a positive effect on China’s grain price, while in high-uncertainty regime global economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative effect in the short term.(2) The effect of global economic policy uncertainty shock on China’s grain price is significantly asymmetric, with a stronger impact in high-uncertainty regime compared with the low-uncertainty regime for the price of maize, wheat, and soybean. As for rice prices, the opposite is true.(3) With a high degree of uncertainty, international oil prices have a greater impact on China’s grain prices, while the impact of international grain prices on China’s grain price is smaller. These results have important policy implications for reducing the impact of current global market uncertainty on China’s grain prices.