OECD国家人口年龄结构变动对房价的影响

The Impact of Age Structure Change of Population on Housing Prices in OECD Countries

利用OECD中31个国家1960-2014年的面板数据,以不同的人口年龄结构为研究视角,分别采用面板校正标准误差估计方法(PCSE)和广义最小二乘法(FGLS)研究并检验了这些国家不同年龄层群体对房价的影响及程度。研究结果表明,在人口密度一定的情况下,少年群体和老年群体的增多会抑制房价上涨,而青年群体和中年群体的增加对房价上涨有促进作用。若将年龄段细化,可以进一步得出25~54岁年龄段人群与80岁以上人群与房价之间显著正相关,而0~24岁和55~79岁年龄段群体与房价之间呈现负相关关系。导致房价上涨的主要因素分别是青年群体所产生的住房刚性需求和中年群体产生的改善型住房需求,次要因素是80岁以上群体所产生的养老型住房需求。

Based on panel data of 31 countries in OECD from 1960 to 2014,using panel correction standard error estimation method(PCSE)and generalized least squares method(FGLS)to study and test the impact of different age groups on housing prices in these countries.The results show that under the condition of a certain population density,the increase of the youth group and the elderly group will restrain the rise of housing prices,while the increase of the youth group and the middle-aged group will promote the rise of housing prices.If the age group is refined,it can further conclude that there is a significant positive correlation between people aged 25 to 54,people over 80 and housing prices,while there is a negative correlation between people aged 0-24,55-79 and housing prices.The main factors leading to the rise of housing prices are the rigid housing demand of the youth group and the improved housing demand of the middle-aged group,and the secondary factor is the demand of the old-age housing of the group over 80 years old.The conclusions provide theoretical reference value for China's future formulation of population policy and effective response to the adverse effects of demographic changes on the housing market.