基于EKC的海南省农业经济增长与农业面源污染的关系分析

Analysis of the Relationship Between Agricultural Economic Growth and Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Based on EKC in Hainan Province

为了解海南省农业面源污染与农业经济增长的关系,为海南省农业面源污染防治提供理论依据,选取2000—2017年海南省化肥施用密度、农药施用密度、地膜施用密度及畜禽粪尿排泄密度作为面源污染指标,人均农业产值为农业经济发展指标,采用回归分析法,对人均农业产值与农业面源污染各指标进行环境库茨涅茨曲线(EKC)分析。结果表明:海南省的农业面源污染源指标与人均农业产值存在显著的“N”型、倒“U”型及“U”型曲线关系。基于分析结果,提出了探索绿色农业发展模式,强化源头治理;建立农业农村环境管理体系,加强监督力度;推广生态农业循环模式,加大品牌创建;建立多元化投入机制,创新金融支持的建议。

This paper aims to understand the relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural economic growth in Hainan Province,provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of agricultural non-point source pollution in Hainan Province.Taking the fertilizer application density,pesticide application density,plastic film application density,and livestock and poultry excretion density in Hainan Province from 2000 to 2017 as non-point source pollution indicators,per capita agricultural output value as an indicator of agricultural economic development,regression analysis of the relationship between the per capita agricultural output value and the agricultural non-point source pollution indicators was performed in environmental Kuznets curve(EKC).The results showed that there were significant“N”,inverted“U”and“U”-shaped curve relationships between the agricultural non-point source pollution indicators and per capita agricultural output value in Hainan Province.Therefore,it is recommended to explore the development mode of green agriculture and strengthen pollution source control,to establish an agricultural and rural environmental management system and strengthen supervision,to promote the eco-agricultural recycling mode and increase brand creation,to establish a diversified investment mechanism and innovate financial support.