中小河流洪水预报研究进展

Advances on Flood Forecasting of Small-Medium Rivers

中小河流洪水预报是当前国际水文科学中亟待研究的重大科学问题之一。由于中小河流存在分布广、降水及下垫面空间异致性强、产汇流时间短、突发性强、水文资料欠缺等特点,因此预报精度较低,预见期短,预报难度大。目前国内外学者对中小河流洪水预报开展了一定的研究,主要集中在中小河流洪水形成机理、洪水预报模型、缺资料中小河流水文模型参数确定方法、洪水预报耦合降水预报等方面。对中小河流洪水预报相关研究进展和存在的问题进行了总结,并指出未来在多源信息高效融合、精细化洪水模拟、高精度降水预报等方面还应进行更深入的研究。

The flood forecasting of small-medium rivers is one of the most important scientific issues in the international hydrological sciences.The small-medium rivers feature wide distribution,strong spatial heterogeneity of precipitation and underlying surface,short time of runoff generation and routing and ungauged hydrological data,which lead to the low forecasting precision,short forecasting lead time and high forecasting difficulty.This paper presented the progress and issues in flood forecasting of small-medium rivers including the flood mechanism,flood forecasting models,parameters estimation for ungauged catchments,and precipitation forecasting.Efficient fusion of multi-source precipitation,precise flood simulation and high-precision precipitation forecasting are suggested for further study.