政策不确定性、隐性市场干预与资本异常流动:基于15个新兴经济体面板数据的研究

Policy Uncertainty,Hidden Market Intervention and Abnormal Capital Flow: A Study Based on Panel Data of 15 Emerging Economies

文章选取15个新兴经济体2003~2018年的季度数据,构建面板数据Logit模型,实证考察了全球经济政策不确定性上升背景下新兴经济体的政府隐性市场干预对资本异常流动的结构性影响。结果显示,全球经济政策不确定性上升会导致新兴经济体出现资本异常流出和异常流入规模的减少;此外,新兴经济体通过隐性干预手段在提振国内市场信心的同时增加了隐性交易成本,从而强化了政策不确定性上升对资本异常流动的影响效果。因此,新兴经济体在面对外部不确定性时应适当选择隐性干预措施,以实现对本国资本流动审慎管理目标。

Based on the quarterly data of 15 emerging economies from 2003 to 2018,this article constructs a panel data logit model to empirically examine the structural impact of government hidden intervention on abnormal cross-border capital flows in emerging economies under the background of rising global economic policy uncertainty. The results show that the rising uncertainty of global economic policy will lead to the reduction of abnormal capital outflows and abnormal inflows in emerging economies. In addition,through hidden intervention,emerging economies increase implicit transaction costs while boosting domestic market confidence,thus strengthening the impact of rising policy uncertainty on abnormal capital flows. Therefore,when facing external uncertainties,emerging economies should appropriately choose hidden interventions to achieve prudent management of their capital flows.