所得税负担会影响地区全要素生产率吗?--基于省际面板数据的实证分析

Will Income Tax Burden Affect TFP?Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

本文利用2003-2017年中国大陆地区30个省份的面板数据,采用非参数DEA-Malmquist测算方法和双向固定效应面板回归模型,实证检验了所得税减免对地区全要素生产率的影响机理及效应。研究发现:所得税减免能够显著促进地区全要素生产率水平的提高,且相对于个人所得税减免而言,企业所得税减税对全要素生产率的影响作用更大,从而证实了"所得税减免→人力资本积累或企业技术创新→全要素生产率提升"的作用路径;分区域来看,中部地区所得税减免对全要素生产率的促进作用较为明显,而在东西部地区其效果并不明显。本文的研究结论对于当前政府进行结构性减税降费以刺激经济活力的政策实施具有重大意义。

Based on panel data of 30 provinces in China's Mainland from 2003 to 2017,this paper uses non parametric DEA Malmquist method and two‑way fixed effect panel regression model to empirically test the impact mechanism and effect of income tax reduction on regional TFP.The results show that,the reduction of income tax can significantly improve the level of TFP in the region.Compared with the reduction of individual income tax,the reduction of enterprise income tax has a greater role in promoting TFP,thus confirming the path of“income tax reduction→Human capital accumulation or enterprise technology innovation→TFP improvement”.From a regional perspective,in the central region,the effect of income tax relief on TFP is obvious,but in the eastern and western regions,the effect is not obvious.Therefore,under the background of the increasing downward pressure of the current economy,the conclusions of this paper are of great significance for the current government to carry out the policy of structural tax reduction and fee reduction to stimulate economic vitality.