四川省1960-2017年旱涝时空变化特征分析

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Change Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Sichuan Province from 1960 to 2017

为了研究四川省的旱涝灾害,基于Z指数,利用41个气象站1960-2017年日降水量数据和线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、空间插值等方法,对四川省年际及四季旱涝的时空变化特征进行分析,主要得出以下结论:四川省近58年有3个特旱年和2个特涝年,夏季是四季中发生旱涝频率最高的季节;四川省整体向偏干旱的方向发展,秋季的干旱化趋势最为明显;四川中部和东北部为雨涝高发区,夏季是最易发生雨涝的季节,频次最高,四川东部和南部发生干旱的频率明显高于西部和北部。研究结果表明Z指数能大致反映出四川旱涝年际的时空分布和变化情况,但在分季节讨论时,存在有部分区域旱涝等级偏高或偏低的差异。

In order to study the drought and flood disasters in Sichuan Province,based on Z index,by using daily pre-cipitation data and linear trend analysis of 41 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2017,Mann-Kendall mutation test,spatial interpolation and other methods,the spatial and temporal change characteristics of inter-annual and seasonal drought and flood in Sichuan Province were analyzed.The main conclusions were as follows:There were three special drought years and two special flood years in the last 58 years.Summer was the season with the highest frequency of drought and flood in the four seasons.Sichuan Province as a whole tended to be drought,while the trend of drought in autumn was the most obvious.The high-incidence areas of rain and flood is in central and northeastern Sichuan Summer was the season with the highest frequency of flood.The frequency of drought in eastern and southern Sichuan was obvi-ously higher than that in western and northern Sichuan.The results show that Z index can roughly reflect the space-time distribution and variation of drought and flood in Sichuan province,but there are some differences of higher or lower drought and flood grades in some regions when discussing seasons.