基于灰色预测模型的江西水产品总产量分析

The analysis of the total production of the aquatic products in Jiangxi province based on the grey prediction model

对江西省40年的水产品产量进行时间序列分析,建立灰色预测模型。在建模过程中对不同的数据选取方法进行比较分析,评估模型的有效性以及两种数据选取的相对误差大小,并对2019—2020年的江西水产品产量进行预测。预测结果显示江西水产品总量维持在2.5×10~6t,灰色关联度低,波动性相对较大,与供给侧结构性改革的持续深化和高质量发展相契合,预测结果可为江西水产结构的调整提供参考依据。

The grey prediction model was established by the time series analysis to the production of the aquatic products in Jiangxi province in 40 years.The different data selection methods were compared and analyzed in the modeling process to evaluate the effectiveness of the model and the relative error of the two kinds of data selection,and the output of aquatic products in Jiangxi from 2019 to 2020 was forecasted.The forecast results showed that the total amount of aquatic products in Jiangxi would be maintained at 2.5 million tons,with a low gray correlation and a relatively large volatility,and be in line with the continuous deepening of supply-side structural reform and high quality development.The prediction result could provide a reference for the adjustment of the aquatic structure in Jiangxi.