长三角区域产业的乘数、溢出及反馈效应比较研究——基于多区域投入产出模型

A Comparative Study of Industrial Multiplier,Spillover and Feedback Effect in the Yangtze River Delta Region—Based on Multi-region Input-output Model

本文在编制最新年份区域间投入产出表的基础上,构建多区域投入产出模型测算了长三角地区各自区域内的乘数效应、区域间溢出效应和反馈效应。实证结果表明:上海的产业带动作用最强,其溢出效应和反馈效应均强于江苏和浙江,且三次产业的溢出效应也最强,对江苏的溢出效应强于对浙江;江苏的产业关联最为紧密,其第一、第二产业的乘数效应最强,但未形成跨地区产业关联,且制造业处于价值链低端;浙江的第二产业关联较为紧密,对上海产业的带动作用较强。为此,应优化地区内部产业结构,共建长三角地区现代产业体系;提高地区产业之间的关联度,带动长三角地区整体协调发展;完善基础设施网络布局,提升长三角地区互联互通水平。

Based on the latest inter-regional input-output table,this paper constructs a multi-regional input-output model to calculate the multiplier effect,inter-regional spillover effect and feedback effect in the Yangtze River Delta region.The empirical results show that Shanghai's industrial driving force is the strongest,and its spillover effect and feedback effect are stronger than those of Jiangsu and Zhejiang,and the spillover effect of the three industries is also the strongest,and its spillover effect on Jiangsu is stronger than that on Zhejiang.Jiangsu has the closest industrial association,with the strongest multiplier effect in the primary and secondary industries,however,no cross-regional industrial association has been formed,and the manufacturing industry is at the low end of the value chain.The secondary industry in Zhejiang is closely related and plays a strong driving role in Shanghai industry.Therefore,it is of great necessity to optimize the internal industrial structure to build the modern industrial system in the Yangtze River Delta region,improve the industrial correlation between regions to promote the overall coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta region and improve the layout of the infrastructure network to enhance connectivity in the Yangtze River Delta region.