贸易竞争结构特征、影响因素与发展取向

Trade Competition Structure Characteristics,Influence Factors and Development Orientation

本文剖析了贸易竞争的结构特征与影响因素,并探讨了国家的未来发展取向。结论显示:(1)贸易竞争呈现以社群内竞争为主的"内部型"社群特征;主要贸易社群演化为较固定的最大利益集团;社群间的利益协调是通过社群成员在社群间的匹配与流动实现的;(2)国家竞争优势呈现出非对称性;国家出口产业以社群内升级为主;贸易分工角色以社群间晋升为主;(3)分工角色竞争、全球治理模式、经济活动、地理邻近是影响贸易竞争结构的重要因素。在未来发展取向上:(1)国家应积极参与社群内竞争,培育新兴竞争缺失产业,融入国际贸易分工体系,向高级社群融合或向更优竞争位置攀登;(2)以强制造业社群为技术产业高点向边缘社群实现产业的"雁阵"布局;(3)控制调节对贸易竞争结构有重要影响的因素变量。

This paper analyzes the structural characteristics and influence factors of trade competition,and discusses the future development orientation of the country.The conclusion shows:(1)Trade competition implies the characteristics of"internal type"community which is dominated by competition within community.The main trade community evolves into a more fixed maximum interest group.Interest coordination within community is achieved through the flow of community members between communities.(2)The competitive advantage among countries is asymmetric.The national export industry is mainly upgraded within community.The role of trade division is mainly upgraded between communities.(3)Trade division competition,global governance,economic activity,geographical proximity are important factors affecting the structure of trade competition.In terms of future development:(1)Countries should actively participate in the competition within community,cultivate emerging industries lacking competition,integrate into the international trade division system,and integrate into the advanced community or climb to a better competitive position.(2)Take the strong manufacturing community as the high point of the technology industry to realize the"Flying Geese"layout of the industry.(3)Adjust factor variables that have important impacts on the structure of trade competition.