中国经济质量发展的推动力:结构调整还是技术进步

The Driving Force of the Development of China’s Economic Quality:Industrial Restructuring or Technological Progress

本文基于1986-2018年省级层面数据,利用动态面板广义矩估计考察产业结构调整与技术进步对中国经济质量发展的影响效应及变动趋势。研究表明:(1)产业结构调整和技术进步均是中国经济质量发展的重要推动力量,但近年来技术进步对经济质量发展的贡献逐渐让位于产业结构调整;(2)产业结构调整对经济质量发展的贡献主要得益于产业结构合理化而非高级化,研究区间内,产业结构合理化始终正向影响中国经济的质量发展,而产业结构高级化只有在2009-2018年表现出正向的影响效应;(3)技术进步、产业结构合理化同经济质量发展之间存在着长期稳定的正向依存关系,这说明经济质量发展水平越高,技术进步和产业结构合理化对经济质量发展的贡献越大;(4)产业结构高级化同经济质量发展之间则呈现出负向的依存关系,这意味着产业结构高级化只有与当前经济质量发展水平相匹配时才能显著地推动经济的质量发展,而不是越高越好。

Based on provincial-level data from 1986 to 2018,the paper uses dynamic panel generalized moment estimation to examine the effects and trends of industrial restructuring and technological progress on the development of China’s economic quality.The research shows that,(1)Both industrial restructuring and technological progress are important driving forces for the development of China’s economic quality,but the contribution of technological progress to the development of China’s economic quality has gradually given way to the industrial restructuring in recent years.(2)The contribution of the industrial restructuring to the development of China’s economic quality mainly benefits from the rationalization of the industrial structure rather than the upgrading.In the study period,the rationalization of the industrial structure has always positively affected the development of China’s economic quality,while the advanced of the industrial structure only showed a positive impact in 2009-2018.(3)There is a long-term positive dependence between technological progress,the rationalization of the industrial structure and the development of economic quality,which indicates that the higher the level of economic quality development,the greater contribution of technological progress and industrial structure rationalization to economic quality development.(4)There is a negative dependency between the advanced of the industrial structure and the development of economic quality,which means that the advanced of the industrial structure can significantly promote the development of economic quality only when it matches the current level of economic quality development,and not higher is better.