基于模拟实验数据的靠泊风险指标确权方法

The Method of Determining the Weight of Berthing Risk Index Based on Simulation Experimental Data

为了提高风险指标权重的客观性,使风险评价结果更加真实,提出一种以实验数据来确定船舶靠泊风险指标权重的方法。以厦门东渡港区1#、2#泊位邮轮靠泊风险评估为例,对模拟操纵实验数据进行统计分析,引入变异系数法,并采用逆向思维的方法确定风险指标的权重。该方法消除了指标确权中的人为因素,对模拟实验数据的分析与应用具有一定意义。

In order to improve the objectivity of the weight of risk indicators and the authenticity of the risk assessment results,we propose a method to determine the weight of risk indicators by experimental data.Taking the risk assessment of large cruise berthing at No.1 and 2 berths of Dongdu Port Area of Xiamen Port as an example,we statistically analyze the experimental data from the simulation maneuvering and introduce the coefficient of variation method and adopt the converse thinking method to determine the weight of risk indicators.This method eliminates the human factor in the determination of the index weight,and has certain significance for the analysis and application of simulation experimental data.