科技创新驱动海洋强国建设效应分析——基于PVAR模型的实证检验

The Analysis of the Effect of Technology Innovationson the Construction of China as a Maritime Power——Based on PVAR Model’s Inspection

海洋强国建设离不开科技创新的驱动。基于量化分析视角,剖析海洋强国建设的科技创新驱动效应,以期找到科技创新驱动海洋强国建设的关键着力点。通过选取沿海11个省份海洋数据,构建海洋科技创新和海洋强国建设指标体系,运用AHP层次分析法和古典循环法进行分类指数的合成,进而运用向量自回归模型(PVAR)、脉冲响应函数和方差分解法,分析了海洋强国建设的科技创新效应。研究结果表明,海洋科技创新对海洋强国建设存在不同程度的正向驱动效应,但总体水平较低,说明在海洋强国建设初期科技驱动仍有较大的发展潜力。

The construction of China as a maritime power is inseparable from technology innovations.Based on the perspective of quantitative analysis,this paper analyzes the driving effect of technology innovations in the construction of China as a maritime power.By selecting the marine data of 11 coastal provinces and cities,this paper constructs an index system for marine technology innovations and maritime power construction,first using the AHP analytic hierarchy process and the classical cycle method to synthesize the classification index,and then the vector autoregressive model(PVAR),impulse response function and variance decomposition method.The results show that marine technology innovations have different degrees of positive driving effect on various aspects of maritime power construction,but the overall level is still low in the initial stage of construction and technology innovations have a great potential for development.