“一带一路”背景下中欧港口航运网络的演化特征

Characteristics of change of the China-Europe port shipping network under the Belt and Road Initiative

中国与欧洲位于欧亚大陆的东西两端,中欧的贸易畅通是"一带一路"发展的重要内容。当前,中欧经贸联系仍主要通过海运完成,中欧港口航运网络的连通是贸易畅通的保障,因此,研究中欧港口航运网络的发展演变对于认识和保障中欧贸易的畅通具有重要意义。依据近20 a的3个时间断面(1995、2005、2015年)航运数据,构建中国与欧洲各港口航线联系网络,并通过刻画港口航运网络的复杂性特征,揭示不同港口节点可达性变化的空间分异,进而从中转港体系、网络组织结构两方面探讨中欧航运网络的演化特征。研究表明:①1995年以来,中欧航线联系的港口节点显著增加,网络覆盖范围明显扩大。2005年和2015年网络均表现出明显的小世界特征和无标度特性;不同港口航线联系的广度、深度和可达性变化差异明显,其中84%的港口可达性增强,地中海和阿拉伯海沿岸少数港口可达性减小。②中欧航运网络的中转港体系由"V"型转变为"U"型,核心中转港出现分化、中转节点逐渐体系化,中转路径趋于多元化,网络稳定性增强。③中欧航运网络的轴-辐组织结构不断优化,网络运行效率明显提升,航线联系更加多元化、复杂化。中欧港口航运网络的轴-辐空间结构经历了"三角型""均衡哑铃型"和"非均衡哑铃型"3个阶段,最终形成以上海港和鹿特丹港为主枢纽的多层次轴-辐空间组织结构。

China and Europe are located at the east and west ends of Eurasia.The smooth flow of trade between China and Europe is an important part of the development of the Belt and Road region.At present,ChinaEurope economic and trade ties are still mainly maintained by sea.The connection between Chinese and European ports through shipping network is the guarantee of smooth trade.Therefore,studying the development and change of China-Europe port shipping network is of great significance for understanding and enhancing the supporting capacity of China-Europe trade links.Based on the shipping data of the past 20 years,the network of Chinese and European port routes is constructed.By portraying the complexity of the port shipping network,the spatial differentiation of the portability changes of different port nodes is revealed.Then we explored the characteristics of change of the China-Europe shipping network by the transit port system and the network organization structure.The result shows that:1)Since 1995,the port nodes linked to the China-Europe routes have increased significantly,and the network coverage has expanded significantly.In 2005 and 2015,the network showed obvious small world and scale-free characteristics;the changes in the breadth and depth of connection and accessibility of the different ports were significantly different,with 84%of the ports being more accessible,and a few ports in the Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea showed reduced accessibility.2)The transit port system of the China-Europe shipping network has changed from V-shaped to U-shaped.The core transit ports have become differentiated,the transit nodes have gradually become systematic,the transit paths have become more diversified,and the network stability has increased.3)The hub and spoke structure of the ChinaEurope shipping network is continuously optimized,the network operation efficiency is significantly improved,and the route links are more diversified and complicated.The hub-spoke spatial model of the China-Europe port shipping network has experienced three stages of change from triangular to balanced dumbbell type and unbalanced dumbbell type,which finally formed the multi-level hub-spoke spatial organizational structure,with Shanghai and Rotterdam as the main hubs.