低碳经济视角下能源产业可持续发展与政策仿真研究

Sustainable development and policy simulation of energy industry from the perspective of low-carbon economy

为了考察不同的政策方案对于能源产业的影响,从能源、经济、环境、政策和社会等要素出发,基于DPSIR理论构建了低碳经济视角下能源产业发展系统仿真模型。并且以陕西省为研究对象,确定了模型参数以及主要方程。研究结果表明:目前陕西省的粗放式发展仍可以保持一定的经济增速,但是对煤炭消费有较强的依赖性,受资源约束影响明显;发展新能源产业对环境产生的改善效果最为明显,可以通过税收政策来弥补传统能源和新能源之间的成本差额,而经济政策和产业政策产生的影响较小。

In order to investigate the impact of different policy options on the energy industry, in view of the energy,economic,environmental,policy and social factors,based on DPSIR theory,a simulation model of the energy industry development system is constructed from the perspective of low carbon economy. Taking Shaanxi Province as the research object,the model parameters and main equations are determined. The research results show that the extensive development of Shaanxi Province can still maintain a certain economic growth rate,but it has strong dependence on coal consumption and is obviously affected by resource constraints. The development of new energy industry has the most obvious effect on the environment. Taxation policies can be used to compensate for the cost difference between traditional and new energy sources,while economic and industrial policies have less impact.