“一带一路”倡议能否提高中国工业产能利用率

Does The Belt and Road Initiative Increase the Utilization of Industrial Capacity in China

基于测算的中国31个省40个工业行业的动态产能利用率,利用双重差分法检验“一带一路”倡议对工业产能的影响,并探讨异质性及作用机制。研究发现:样本期间,“一带一路”倡议尚未对中国的产能过剩问题表现出明显的缓解作用。与轻工业、非高污染行业相比,重工业、高污染行业受“一带一路”倡议影响相对更大。以国有产权为代表的政府干预进一步强化了倡议对重点省份产能利用率的抑制影响,而全要素生产率的提升对化解过剩产能有积极作用,是提高“一带一路”倡议重点省份产能利用率的重要微观基础。结论启示:发挥高生产率企业在“一带一路”中的产能推动作用,进一步明确政府政策指导与市场配置资源的界限,促进企业全要素生产率的提升是化解当前产能过剩问题、稳步推进一带一路倡议的根本所在。

Based on the calculation of the dynamic capacity utilization rate of 40 industries in 31 provinces of China,this paper examines the impact of the The Belt and Road initiative on capacity utilization,and investigates heterogeneity and mechanism by using DID method.The study finds that The Belt and Road initiative has not yet shown a significant mitigation effect on China s overcapacity problem,and this negative effect has been more significant in heavy industries and high polluting industries.The government intervention represented by state-owned property rights has further strengthened the suppressing effect of the initiative on the capacity utilization rate,but the promotion of TFP has a positive effect on alleviating overcapacity in these provinces.Enhancing high-productivity enterprises promoting effects on the production capacity,further clarifying the boundaries between government policy guidance and market allocation resources,and promoting enterprises TFP growth is fundamental matter for preventing the excess production capacity and steadily promoting The Belt and Road initiative.