我国羊肉市场价格波动分析

Analysis of price fluctuation in China’s mutton market

肉羊产业是我国畜牧业的重要组成部分,肉羊产业健康有序发展面临的一大重要阻力是我国羊肉市场价格不稳定发展,不利于肉羊养殖主体提高效益和政府产业部门良好决策。基于此,本研究从时间与区域两个维度出发,基于羊肉市场月度价格与年度平均价格分析我国羊肉市场价格波动特征、波动差异及影响因素。结果表明:从时间维度来看,我国羊肉市场价格整体呈波动上涨趋势,但我国羊肉市场价格稳定性较差,运行呈现明显波动与集聚性;从区域维度来看,受运输成本等因素影响我国羊肉产地价格低于销地,且主产省价格波动程度要大于非主产省。2000—2017年我国不同省份羊肉市场价格呈波动上升趋势,但具体波动的阶段性特征不一致,不同省出现价格高峰的时间不一致,区域省际间的价格割裂程度较为明显。影响我国羊肉市场价格波动的因素主要来自供给、需求与系统外因素三个方面,不同区域影响因素存在差异;但肉羊养殖成本及替代品价格仍然是不同区域共同的重要影响因素。

Mutton sheep industry is an important part of animal husbandry in China.The instability of the price of mutton market in China is a big obstacle to the healthy and orderly development of the mutton sheep industry,which is unfavorable to the improvement of the main body of mutton sheep breeding and the good decision-making of the government.Based on these reasons,this paper analyzes the fluctuation characteristics,fluctuation differences and influencing factors of the price of mutton market in China from the perspectives of time and region based on the monthly and regional average prices.The results showed that the price of mutton market in China as a whole increased in volatility from the time dimension,but the price stability of mutton market in China was poor,and the operation showed obvious fluctuation and agglomeration.From the perspective of regional dimension,the price of mutton producing area in China was lower than that of the selling area due to the transportation costs and other factors,and the price fluctuation of the main producing provinces was greater than that of the non-main producing provinces.The market price of mutton in different provinces of China showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2017,but the stage characteristics of specific fluctuations were inconsistent,the time when the price peak appeared in different provinces was also inconsistent,and the degree of price fragmentation among regions and provinces was more obvious.The factors affecting the price fluctuation of mutton market in China mainly come from three aspects:supply,demand and external factors,which are different in different regions.However,the cost of raising mutton sheep and the price of alternatives are still important factors in different regions.