基于ARIMA模型对北京垃圾分类对策的计量分析

Econometric Analysis of Beijing Waste Classification Based on ARIMA Model

针对垃圾分类对策,首先运用相关分析法研究了北京市常住人口、居民消费水平与垃圾总量之间的关系,运用ARIMA模型对北京市未来垃圾生产总量进行预测,使用SPSS等软件进行处理,研究得出北京市2020至2024年垃圾生产总量的变化情况。其次,运用层次分析法给出垃圾分类方案,并据此为北京市制定了一份垃圾分类实施计划,使垃圾分类更容易实施并被人们接受。

Aiming at the waste classification countermeasures,the correlation analysis method was first used to study the relationship between Beijing’s resident population,residents’consumption level and total waste.The ARIMA model was used to predict the total waste production in Beijing,and obtained the change of total waste production in Beijing from 2020 to 2024.Secondly,an analytic hierarchy process was used to give a waste classification scheme,and a waste classification implementation plan was developed for Beijing to make waste classification easier to implement and accepted by people.