黑龙江省生态足迹的动态演变与驱动因子研究

Study on the Dynamic Evolution and Driving Factors of Ecological Footprint in Heilongjiang Province

黑龙江省作为中国的林业大省与商品粮基地,对国家的生态安全及粮食安全有着极为重要的作用,研究其经济社会发展与自然环境的相互影响关系具有重要意义。文章基于黑龙江省1998~2018年耕地、林地、草地、水域用地、化石燃料用地和建筑用地六大土地类型的生产量和消费量数据,运用生态足迹模型测度黑龙江省21年来生态足迹、生态承载力与生态赤字(盈余)的动态变化规律,并使用年初与年末人口数的算术平均数计算人均生态足迹的数值,以避免对计算结果产生偏差,最后通过结构方程模型分析人均生态足迹的驱动因子,找出威胁黑龙江省生态安全的主要因素。研究发现:(1)人均生态足迹均值为3.55 hm^2/人,增长率达到112.43%;人均生态承载力均值为1.82hm^2/人,生态压力指数为1.92,黑龙江省面临较大的生态压力,生态安全状况不容乐观;(2)人均生态赤字均值为–1.73hm^2/人,以年均5.97%的速度增长,分析生态赤字结构可知,化石燃料用地占据主导地位,其次是草地和建筑用地,只有林地一直处于生态盈余;(3)经济发展、社会发展、生态污染和环境建设是导致生态足迹的重要因素,其中经济发展、社会发展和生态污染加快生态足迹的进程,环境建设对生态足迹有抑制作用。

Heilongjiang Province,as a major forestry province and commodity grain base in China,plays an extremely important role in the country’s ecological security and food security.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the interaction relationship between its economic and social environment.Based on the data of production and consumption of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water area,fossil fuel and construction land in Heilongjiang Province from 1998 to 2018,the study used the ecological footprint model to measure the dynamic changes of ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit(surplus)in Heilongjiang Province,and used the arithmetic mean of population to calculate the per capita ecological footprint,so as to avoid the deviation of results.Finally,it used the structural equation model to analyze the driving factors of per capita ecological footprint to find out the main factors that threatened the ecological security of Heilongjiang Province.The results showed that:(1)the average per capita ecological footprint was 3.55 hm^2/person,with an increase rate of 112.43%,the per capita ecological carrying capacity was 1.82 hm^2/person,and the ecological pressure index was 1.92,Heilongjiang Province faced great ecological pressure and the ecological security situation was not optimistic;(2)the per capita ecological deficit was-1.73 hm^2/person,with an average annual growth rate of 5.97%,the structure of ecological deficit showed that fossil fuel land contributed the most,followed by grassland and construction land,only forest land had been in ecological surplus;(3)economic development,social development,ecological pollution and environmental construction were the important factors leading to ecological footprint,among which economic development,social development and ecological pollution accelerated the process of ecological footprint,and environmental construction had a restraining effect on ecological footprint.