60年来西汉水流域降水径流演变特征及影响分析

Precipitation and runoff variation and their influence in Xihan river basin over past 60 years

西汉水为长江流域嘉陵江上游重要支流,为深入并真实反映该流域水文特征,采用流域内水文站1956~2016年实测资料对径流进行还原分析计算,利用Mann-Kendall检验、累积距平流、有序聚类等方法,研究了西汉水流域降雨径流演变特征。结果表明:西汉水流域降水、径流均呈递减趋势,降水减少趋势不显著,径流减少趋势显著;降水主要突变点在1993年,次要突变点在1968年和1977年,径流变化主要突变点在1993年,次要突变点在1968年;突变时间点与流域开发利用节奏基本一致,有效表征出人类活动对流域径流的影响。

Xihanshui River is an significant tributary in the upper reaches of the Jialing River in the Yangtze River Basin.In order to explore the actual hydrological characteristics of Xihanshui River basin,the runoff reduction calculation was carried out based on hydrological measured data from 1956 to 2016.The precipitation and runoff variation in Xihanshui River basin were analyzed by Mann-Kendall test,cumulative anomaly method,serial cluster analysis method and so on.The results showed that the precipitation and runoff displayed decreasing trend.Besides,the precipitation trend was significant but the runoff trend was not.For the precipitation,the most distinct sudden change was in 1993,and the relatively distinct sudden changes were in 1968 and 1977.For the runoff,the most distinct change was in 1993,and the relatively distinct sudden change was in 1968.Furthermore,the runoff sudden change time was generally consistent with the hydraulic engineering construction time,showing the impact of human activities on the runoff in Xihanshui River basin.