《巴黎协定》国家自主贡献信息、核算规则及评估

Provisions and assessment on information and accounting rules of nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement

国家自主贡献(NDC)是《巴黎协定》最核心的制度。2018年达成的《巴黎协定》实施细则,形成了国家自主贡献的特征、信息和核算导则,对各方履约提出了新要求。研究这一国际规则,对中国有效履约和引领全球气候治理具有重要意义。本文首先基于作者参与联合国气候变化谈判的过程,对《巴黎协定》国家自主贡献信息、核算规则进行了阐释,然后采用案例分析法,选取10个典型缔约方前期通报的国家自主贡献作为研究案例开展履约效果评估。结果显示,按照新规则,案例缔约方国家自主贡献信息的完整性和透明度都有待提高,其中,在对贡献的核算方法学和假设、贡献公平性的阐释等方面的履约效果普遍较差。发达国家履约效果普遍优于发展中国家。发达国家报告的信息类别相对全面,符合导则要求的程度较高,但也存在对公平性的阐释等方面不满足导则规定的情况。发展中国家报告的信息缺失相对较多,包括基准年信息、贡献核算方法学和假设、对贡献公平性的阐释等。本研究表明,国家自主贡献实施细则将对中国履约提出更高的要求。在国际工作方面,建议增强国际谈判与国内履约工作的对接与协作,加强关于国家自主贡献实施的国际交流合作,为后续国家自主贡献导则更新谈判做好准备;国内工作方面,建议强化中国后续国家自主贡献通报方案的研究支撑,组建机制化的专家咨询委员会和编写组,为根据信息导则提供信息做好准备。

Nationally determined contributions(NDCs)is the most core mechanism under the Paris Agreement.The Katowice Climate Package of the Paris Agreement was achieved in 2018,together with NDCs’guidance on feature,information and accounting.It puts forward new requirements for all parties to fulfill their obligations.The research on this international rule is of great significance for China to effectively implement the Paris Agreement and to take the lead in global climate governance.Based on the authors’participation in the negotiation under UNFCCC,this paper interpreted the information of NDCs and the accounting rules of the Paris Agreement,and then applied the case analysis method to assess the effectiveness of the implementation of 10 typical parties with their early communicated NDCs.The results showed that,according to the new rules,the integrity and transparency of the NDC information of these 10 parties need to be improved,with generally poor performance on providing information on accounting methodology and assumptions,NDCs fairness,etc.Generally speaking,developed countries had better performance on the implementation than developing countries.The information reported by developed countries were relatively comprehensive and more in line with the requirements of the guidance,though some countries failed to provide sufficient information on fairness.The information reported by developing countries was relatively insufficient,missing information on base year,accounting methodology and assumptions,fairness,etc.This study showed that the implementation rules of NDCs will put forward higher requirements for China’s compliance with the Paris Agreement.In terms of international work,this study suggests that the coordination and cooperation between international negotiations and domestic work should be enhanced.It also suggests that international dialogues and cooperation on the implementation of NDCs should be strengthened,so as to make preparations for future negotiations on updating NDCs’guidance.In terms of domestic work,we need to strengthen the research support of the preparations of China’s successive NDCs and establish an advisory committee and a preparatory team with institutionalized arrangement,aiming to make good preparations for providing information according to NDCs’guidance.