中国粮食生产波动:特征、成因及启示

THE FLUCTUATION OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN CHINA:CHARACTERISTICS,CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS

[目的]粮食生产波动的本质是粮食生产发展变化规律问题,分析中国粮食生产波动的基本特征和成因,有利于降低粮食生产波动带来的不利影响,对于稳定粮食生产,保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。[方法]采用H-P滤波分析方法对1978—2017年中国粮食生产的长期和短期波动及其成因进行分析。[结果]粮食总产波动对单产波动最敏感,对三大作物中的水稻波动最敏感。根据波动特征,粮食总产的短期波动可分为4个阶段。制度变革、要素投入、科技进步、市场走势以及气候变化等因素对粮食面积、单产以及总产的波动具有显著影响,但不同时期粮食生产波动的主要成因有所差异。[结论]中国粮食生产面临新一轮下行压力,需要警惕国内外粮食市场异常变动;粮食生产波动与政策导向密切相关,保持政策的稳定性十分重要;粮食总产波动的波幅较大且波峰绝对值小于波谷,持续稳定增产难度较大;防范粮食生产超常波动,首先要防范水稻生产超常波动;粮食生产集中度进一步提高,区域性气象灾害带来的风险越来越大。

The essence of the fluctuation of grain production is issues on the characteristics and the dynamic changes of grain production.Analyzing the fluctuation characteristics and causes of grain production in China is helpful to eliminate the negative influence of fluctuations,which is of great significance for the stable development of grain production and the guarantee of national food security.Using the H-P filtering analysis,this paper analyzed the long-term and short-term fluctuation of grain production,as well as the driving force of the fluctuation in China from 1978 to 2017.The results showed that the fluctuation of grain production was more sensitive to the changes of yield than that of sown areas,and more sensitive to the fluctuation of rice production than that of wheat production or maize production.The short-term fluctuation of grain production in China from 1978 to 2017 could be divided into four stages based on the fluctuation characteristics.This paper analyzed the impact of institutional innovation,production inputs,technical progress,market conditions and climate on the fluctuation of the grain area,yield and total output.We found that all these factors had a significant impact on the fluctuation of grain production in China,but played different roles during different periods.China is under pressure to keep a steady growth in grain production and must be alert to the abnormal fluctuation of the international grain market.The fluctuation of grain production is closely related to the policy orientation;therefore,it is vital to keep the stability of the agricultural and food policies.Grain production in China reveals wide fluctuation range,with larger absolute value of the crest than the trough,indicating that it is difficult to maintain a continuous increase in grain production.The fluctuation of grain production is highly correlated with the fluctuation of rice production,so it is essential to keep the stability of rice production to avoid abnormal fluctuation in grain production.Grain production is becoming more and more geographically concentrated,increasing the risks posed by regional meteorological disasters.