我国生产率测算与经济潜在增长率预测研究

Research on the calculation of productivity and the forecast of economic potential growth rate in China

生产率是影响一国参与全球竞争的关键要素。本文基于全周期和子周期两种视角,利用C-D生产函数对我国生产率进行测算并预测了未来的经济潜在增长率,研究结果显示:21世纪以来,我国全要素生产率呈现下降趋势,但对经济的贡献率仍处于较高水平,经济呈现科技与资本双轮驱动特征;未来我国将跨越上中等收入阶段,步入高收入国家行列;预测结果显示:2036-2050年间我国经济增长主要靠全要素生产率拉动,经济增长动力的有效转换,将更加接近党的十九大提出的"两阶段"战略目标,更加适应新时代下的高质量发展需求。

Productivity is the key factor for a country to take part in global competition.From the perspectives of full-cycle and sub-cycle,this paper uses the C-D production function to calculate China's productivity and to predict its economic potential growth rate in the future.The result shows:Since 21st century,total factor productivity has been declined,but its contribution rate to the economy is still at a high level,which means economy presents the characteristics of dual-wheel drive of technology and capital;In the future,China will step over the middle-income stage and enter the high-income stage;the prediction shows:Between 2036 and 2050,China's economy development will mainly dependent on TFP driving,an effective transformation of the power of economy will make it closer to the"two-stage"strategic objective proposed by the 19th National Congress of the CPC,and will better meet the demand for high-quality development in the new era.