“一带一路”沿线国家出口贸易潜力研究——基于扩展引力模型对浙江省数据的分析

Research on the Export Trade Potential of Countries Along the Belt and Road——Analysis of Zhejiang Data Based on Extended Gravity Model

本文研究我国与"一带一路"沿线国家的出口贸易潜力,并着重从省市层面进行分析,以出口大省浙江为例,运用扩展引力模型,实证检验了浙江省对"一带一路"沿线国家的出口影响因素和出口贸易潜力。研究表明:出口贸易受经济规模、人口数量、距离、自由贸易协定安排和沿海国家条件等因素的显著影响;浙江省与18个沿线国家是出口贸易潜力成熟型关系,与13个沿线国家是出口贸易潜力成长型关系,与23个沿线国家是出口贸易潜力待开发型关系。基于此,本文为继续推动"一带一路"建设提出相关对策建议。

This article studies the export trade potential between China and the countries along the“Belt and Road”,and focuses on the analysis at the inter-provincial level.Taking Zhejiang,a major export province,as an example,and using the extended gravity model,it has empirically tested Zhejiang’s Factors affecting the country's exports and export trade potential.Studies have shown that:It is significantly influenced by factors such as economic size,population,distance,free trade agreement arrangements and conditions of coastal countries;Zhejiang and 18 countries along the route have mature export trade potential relationships,and 13 countries along the route have export trade potential growth Relationship with 23 countries along the route is a potential relationship for export trade potential to be developed.Based on this,this article puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions.