“十二五”期间中国工业水污染排放的达标路径

The Path to Reach the Standard of Industrial Water Pollution Discharge in China during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period

该研究采用投入产出分析和结构分解分析方法,将影响中国"十二五"期间化学需氧量和氨氮排放量变化的因素分解为污染物排放浓度效应、强度效应、技术效应和最终需求效应。并对各效应引起水污染物排放量变化的影响程度进行评价。结果表明:(1)污染物排放浓度因素和强度因素对水污染物的减排具有积极效应,而技术因素和最终需求因素均起到负面作用。(2)总体而言,影响化学需氧量和氨氮排放量变化程度大的行业具有一定的集中性,工业方面主要集中在化工、食品、造纸、纺织、冶金、煤炭、石油和供应行业,大多为高耗水、高排放的行业。

Based on the input-output analysis(IOA)and structure decomposition analysis(SDA)model,this article systematically identified the factors affecting the discharge of chemical oxygen demand(COD)and ammonia nitrogen during the period from 2010 to 2015,which are the effects of concentration of the pollutants,intensity,technology and final demand.Then the contribution of each factor is evaluated.The results show that the concentration of the pollutants and intensity have positive effects on water pollution reduction,while technology and final demand plays a negative role.Overall,the industries that exert relatively great impacts on the changes in the amount of the discharge of COD and ammonia nitrogen are clustered to certain extent.Majority of those industries are high water-consuming and high discharge,including chemicals,food products,paper products,textiles,metal smelting and rolling,coal mining,oil products and supply.