人工智能技术对制造业就业的影响效应分析--基于中国广东省制造企业用工总量与结构的调查

Research on the Influence of Artificial Intelligence on Employment in Manufacturing Industry:Based on the Survey of Total Employment and Structure of Manufacturing Enterprises in Guangdong Province,China

人工智能与制造业深度融合是推动制造业转型升级、实现高质量发展的关键,受替代效应和创造效应的共同作用,人工智能对制造业就业的影响方向和程度存在不确定性。针对广东省270家制造企业的分析结果显示,人工智能应用对制造企业用工总量、结构、需求以及员工收入等都会产生明显影响,尤其是AI技术应用比例、应用时间、是否制定计划、应用首要动机、生产性人员占比等是影响用工数量变化的主要因素,需要从产业政策、人才培养和社会保障等方面提出保障建议。

The deep integration of artificial intelligence(AI)with manufacturing is the key to promoting the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing and achieving high-quality development.Due to the combined effect of substitution and creation,the direction and extent of AI′s impact on manufacturing employment are uncertain.The analysis results of 270 manufacturing companies in Guangdong Province show that the application of AI will have a significant impact on the total employment,structure,demand and employee income of the manufacturing companies,especially the proportion of AI technology application,application time,whether to make AI plans,and application priority motivation and the proportion of productive personnel are the main factors that affect the changes in the number of employees.It is necessary to put forward security suggestions from industrial policies,personnel training and social security.