基于可测度类比模型的县级城市交通运行状况分析

Analysis of traffic operation status of county-level cities based on measurable analog model

为了更好预测县级城市交通运行状况,假设其与所在地级市主城区的交通运行状况存在时空耦合关系,以县级城市的交通运行指数作为评价城市交通运行状况的综合指标,基于经典类比分析法,建立县级城市交通运行指数计算模型。收集浙江省62个县级城市的经济、人口及公交等方面的实际数据,测算各县级市的交通运行指数,并用实测各县级市的城区公交平峰和高峰时段的速度对模型进行验证。结果表明:模型计算结果与实际情况相符,该模型可以较准确地预测县级城市的交通运行状况。

In order to predict the urban traffic operation status of county-level cities,this paper assumes that there is a spatiotemporal coupling relationship with the traffic operating conditions of the main urban area of the local city.The traffic operation index of county-level cities is used as a comprehensive index to evaluate the urban traffic operation conditions.Based on the classical analog analysis method,a model of calculating the traffic operation index of county-level cities is established.Collecting the actual data on the economy,population and public transportation of 62 county-level cities in Zhejiang Province,the traffic operation index of each county-level city is measured.Also,the calculation model is verified by measuring the flat peak speed and peak speed of each county-level city.The results show that the results calculated by the model are consistent with the actual situation,and the model can predict the traffic operation conditions of county-level cities more accurately.