基于逻辑回归模型的四平市景观格局演变及其驱动力分析

Analysis of landscape pattern evolution and its driving force in Siping City based on logistic regression model

为研究近30 a来四平市景观格局的演变并分析其主要驱动力。笔者选取1990、2000、2010和2018年Landsat TM/ETM遥感解译数据,从类型和景观水平方面分析四平市近30 a来的景观格局指数和景观类型转移、演变趋势,采用Logistic回归模型揭示四平市景观格局演变的主要驱动力。结果表明:①四平市景观格局中耕地所占面积最大,为主要优势基质景观类型,对维持区域生态系统稳定起决定性作用,其次分别为林地景观、水域景观、城镇景观和草地景观;②近30 a来四平市景观破碎化程度增加,景观形状整体上趋于简单化,景观连接性和多样性增加,但景观均匀度下降;③1990-2018年林地向耕地和草地转化,草地主要转移为林地、耕地和未利用地,土地整体呈现逐年退化的趋势;④近30 a来四平市景观格局演变受自然因子(坡度、高程、距河流距离和距道路距离)和人为因子(人口和GDP)综合的作用。

In order to study the landscape pattern evolution of Siping in recent 30 years and analyze its main driving force,Landsat TM/ETM remote sensing interpretation data of 1990,2000,2010 and 2018 were selected to analyze the landscape pattern index,landscape type transfer and evolution trend of Siping City in the past 30 years in terms of type and landscape level.Logistic regression model was used to reveal the main driving force of landscape pattern evolution in Siping.The results show that:①The cultivated land occupies the largest area in the landscape pattern of Siping,which is the main dominant substrates landscape type and plays a decisive role in maintaining the stability of the regional ecosystem,the rest of part is the landscape of forest,water,town and grassland.②In the past 30 years,the landscape fragmentation in Siping has increased,the overall landscape shape tends to be simplified,and the landscape connectivity and diversity have increased,but the landscape uniformity has decreased.③From 1990 to 2018,forest land was transformed into cultivated land and grassland,and grassland was mainly transferred to forest land,cultivated land and unused land.The land as a whole showed a trend of degradation year by year.④In the past 30 years,the landscape pattern evolution of Siping has been influenced by natural factors(slope,elevation and distance from river and road)and human factors(population and GDP).