考虑负面口碑的竞争性创新扩散研究:概念框架与仿真分析

Modeling Competitive Innovation Diffusion with the Consideration of Negative Word-of-Mouth:Conceptual Framework and Simulation Analysis

创新往往以市场扩散失败而告终,但当前研究常常围绕成功的创新扩散展开。创新扩散存在多层意义,而不仅仅体现在扩散数量上。在Bass扩散模型的基础上,构造考虑竞争与负面口碑影响的多状态创新扩散模型,利用系统动力学方法探讨不同情境下的创新扩散。仿真结果显示,竞争与负面口碑将从数量和价值角度影响创新扩散过程与结果;同时,作为一种复杂系统,影响因素在类别与品牌层面上的效果并不一致。

Although market failures of innovation diffusion are commonplace,most studies focus successful innovation diffusions and thus cannot interpret why failures always happen.Meanwhile the multiple aspects of innovation diffusion are always neglected.Builds upon Bass Model,a multiple-state innovation diffusion model is constructed to consider the influences of competition and negative word-of-mouth,and employs the system dynamics approach to investigate innovation diffusions under different contexts.Simulation results show,these two factors will affect the results and process of innovation diffusion both at the ratio and monetary level;and as a complex system,the influences of these factors are different at the category and brand level.