中国活鸡价格区域差异时空特征及其驱动因素研究

Study on the Spatio-temporal Features and Driving Factors of Regional Differences in Live Chicken Price in China

我国是鸡肉消费大国,各地区价格波动频繁。本文基于2001-2017年我国省级月度面板数据,运用空间自相关和冷热点分析对活鸡价格差异的时空特征进行探讨,通过泰尔指数分解和空间杜宾模型对其驱动因素进行剖析。结果表明:①价格热点区域和冷点区域均呈现集中态势,局部空间关联特征鲜明;②活鸡价格呈现出显著的正空间关联特征;组内差距是引起区域间差异的主要原因;存在跨区域的空间溢出效应。③生产成本、替代品价格及城镇化率是影响活鸡价格波动的主要驱动因素。建议推进中国活鸡市场的整合、加大重点区域的监控、加强活鸡市场区域间的协调,因地施策,实现对活鸡价格波动的有效调控。

China is a big chicken consumer, with frequent price fluctuations in various regions. Based on the provincial monthly panel data from 2001 to 2017 in China, this paper uses Spatial Autocorrelation and Cold-hot Spot analysis to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of the price difference of live chickens, and analyzes its driving factors through Theil index decomposition and Spatial Durbin model. The results showed that the price hotspots and coldspots are concentrated, and local spatial correlation characteristics are distinct;Prices are significantly positive spatial correlation characteristics, intra-group gap is the main reason for regional differences, and there is space across regions Spillover Effect;Production costs, substitute prices and urbanization rates are the main driving factors affecting the fluctuation of live chicken prices. It is suggested to promote the integration of China’s live chicken market, increase monitoring in key areas, strengthen coordination among live chicken markets, and implement measures based on local conditions to effectively control the price fluctuations of live chickens.