航路扇区容量需求的交通流动力学推演与预测

Capacity Demand Prediction for En-route Airspace Based on Network Traffic Flow Dynamic Model

为科学应对交通需求的持续增长,合理进行空域规划,从介观层面刻画交通流动态演化过程,提出航路网络交通流演化模型.以此为基础,将预测得到的城市对间年度交通总需求量推演到整个航路网络中,实现未来交通需求时空分布的中长期预测;构建航路扇区容量需求预测模型,选取华东地区两个相邻航路扇区为研究对象,进行实例验证.结果表明,所提方法能对航路扇区容量需求进行有效预测,未来5年内两个航路扇区容量需求将分别由50架次/h、39架次/h上升为70架次/h、45架次/h.

This paper proposes a prediction method for the future capacity demand of en-route sectors,which can be further used to airspace planning as traffic demand continues growing in the future.An en-route network traffic flow dynamic model,characterizing dynamics of traffic flow,is proposed to describe dynamic evolution process of traffic flow in the air route network.Then the yearly city-pair air traffic demand can be propagated into the entire en-route network,and the temporal and spatial traffic demand in the en-route airspace is obtained.On this basis,the future capacity demand of en-route airspace is predicted based on the time and space distribution of traffic demand in the network.A case study of two en-route sectors demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed prediction framework The result indicates that the capacity demands of the two sectors will increase from 50 aircraft/h and 39 aircraft/h to 70 aircraft/h and 45 aircraft/h in the next 5 years.