工业经济增长与能源消费的动态关联性研究

A Study on the Dynamic Relationship Between Industrial Economic Growth and Energy Consumption

为探究工业经济增长与能源消费的动态演变性,本文基于能源消费强度和能源消费弹性系数,透析工业经济增长与能源消费的现实耦合关系;并据此,运用我国1999~2018年的时间序列数据,引入融合Logistic函数的LSTVAR模型,运用GIRF广义脉冲响应函数分析不同发展时期下工业经济增长与能源消费的非线性时变性。结果表明,无论高速、非高速期工业经济增长与能源消费均存在双向的冲击效应,在高速期,工业经济增长对能源消费需求的正向冲击效应较非高速期更短,且存在负效应;而高速期、非高速能源消费对工业经济增长的正向冲击效应均较为短暂,尤其非高速期,能源消费对工业经济增长的冲击效应存在时变性,且负面效应更为显著;可见,不同发展时期下,我国工业经济增长对能源消费的依存度短期内不可能改变,但单纯依靠能源消费实现工业经济持续增长是不可行的。

In order to explore the dynamic evolution of industrial economic growth and energy consumption,this paper analyzes the real coupling relationship between industrial economic growth and energy consumption based on energy consumption intensity and energy consumption elasticity coefficient.Based on this,using the time series data of 1999~2018 in China,the paper intro⁃duces the lstvar model integrating logistic function,and uses GIRF generalized impulse response function to analyze no the non-linear time-varying of industrial economic growth and energy consumption in the same development period.The results show that there is a two-way impact effect between industrial economic growth and energy consumption in high-speed and non high-speed periods.In high-speed periods,the positive impact effect of industrial economic growth on energy consumption demand is shorter than that in non high-speed periods,and there is a negative effect.However,the positive impact effect of high-speed and non high-speed energy consumption on industrial economic growth is relatively short,especially in non high-speed periods the impact effect of ener⁃gy consumption on industrial economic growth is time-varying,and the negative effect is more significant.It can be seen that the dependence of industrial economic growth on energy consumption can not be changed in a short period of time in different development periods,but it is not feasible to achieve sustained industrial economic growth solely relying on energy consumption.