税收竞争对中国制造业全要素生产率的影响——基于总量与结构双重视角的实证分析

The Influence of Tax Competition on Chinese Manufacturing Total Factor Productivity——Empirical Analysis Based on Dual Perspectives of Total and Structure

本文基于中国2007~2018年的省级面板数据,通过构建固定效应、门槛效应模型,从税收总量和结构双重视角探讨税收竞争对制造业全要素生产率的影响。结果表明:(1)在税收总量上,税收竞争不利于制造业全要素生产率的提升。在税收结构上,所得税竞争抑制了制造业全要素生产率的提升,增值税竞争促进了制造业全要素生产率的提升;(2)从门槛效应的估计结果来看,总税收竞争、增值税竞争、所得税竞争均存在以人均GDP为门槛变量的双重门槛效应。具体地,在经济越发达的地区,总税收竞争对制造业全要素生产率的抑制作用逐渐缓解。所得税竞争在经济发展到一定程度后,对制造业全要素生产率的作用将由抑制转变为促进。增值税竞争则随着人均GDP的提高,对制造业全要素生产率的促进作用逐渐增强。

Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2007 to 2018,this paper explores the impact of tax competition on the total factor productivity of manufacturing industry from the perspective of total taxation and structure by constructing fixed effect and threshold effect models.The results show that:first,in terms of total tax revenue,tax competition is not conducive to the improvement of the total factor productivity of the manufacturing industry.In terms of tax structure,income tax competition has restrained the improvement of manufacturing total factor productivity,and value added tax competition has promoted the improvement of manufacturing total factor productivity.Second,from the results of the threshold effect estimation,there are double threshold effects in total tax competition,value-added tax competition,and income tax competition.Specifically,in the more economically developed regions,the restraint effect of total tax competition on the total factor productivity of manufacturing industries has gradually eased.After the economic development reaches a certain level,the role of income tax competition in manufacturing's total factor productivity will change from restraint to promotion.With the increase of per capita GDP,the value-added tax competition has gradually strengthened the promotion of total factor productivity in manufacturing.