国内金价低于国际,还会持续多久?

How Long will China’s Gold Price Stay Lower than Global Prices?

为应对新冠疫情影响,多国央行采取降息或大规模量化宽松的货币政策,黄金开启上扬行情。国内金价罕见地较长时间低于国际金价,引发投资者广泛关注。文章结合当前国内外供需格局变化、跨境套利可行性、境内外价差变化等,分析人民币计价的境内外黄金价差形成的原因,并预判后续演化。

In response to the impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic,many central banks have cut rates or adopted large-scale quantitative easing,and the gold price hence began to rally.China’s gold price has stayed lower than global prices for quite a long time,a rare phenomenon that has caused widespread concern among investors.Based on the current changes in domestic and foreign supply and demand,the feasibility of cross-border arbitrage,as well as the changes in cross-border spreads,the article analyzes the reasons behind the spread between domestic and foreign golds denominated in the RMB,and predicts its subsequent evolution.