摘要
目的分析使用数学模型等方法预测新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)流行趋势的相关研究,为预测COVID-19流行趋势提供证据和经验,降低COVID-19疫情的危害。方法检索PubMed,中国知网,万方数据库新型冠状病毒肺炎专题等数据库,结合国家卫生健康委员会官方数据对比研究结果。结果检索后共发现21篇相关研究,分别使用SIR模型,SEIR模型等方法预测COVID-19流行趋势、评价干预手段。SEIR+CAQ模型预测的累计确诊人数峰值和峰值出现时间与实际情况最为接近。数据显示我国采取的防控措施有效抑制了疫情的扩散。结论采用数学模型和其他方法预测COVID-19流行趋势时,应注意结合疾病自身特点和所研究地区的防控措施。
Objectives To analyze the studies about predicting COVID-19 by math models,to provide evidences and experiences to reduce the hazard of COVID-19.Methods PubMed,CNKI and other databases were searched for studies involving math models of COVID-19,and the studies were compared with each other and the real data.Results A total of 21 publications were included.SIR,SEIR and other models were used to predict the prevalence and evaluate the interventions.The results were predicted by SEIR+CAQ model were the closest to the actual situation.And the control measures have effectively restrained COVID-19.Conclusion Characteristics of COVID-19 and prevention measures should be concerned,when predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19.
作者
刘雅姝
吴琪俊
陆一涵
赵玉虹
LIU Yashu;WU Qijun;LU Yihan;ZHAO Yuhong(Department of Clinical Epidemiology,Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University,Shenyang 110004,China;Clinical Research Center,Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University Shenyang 110004,China;Fudan School of Public Health,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《公共卫生与预防医学》
2020年第3期10-13,共4页
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
基金
2017年度国家重点研发计划“精准医学研究”重点专项“东北区域自然人群队列研究”(2017YFC0907401)。
